Foster Row Research - Winter 2026

Bayswater Property Market Update
Winter 2026 (Sales and Lettings)

This report analyses the Bayswater property market during Winter 2026, examining residential sales and lettings activity across postcode W2 within prime central London.

Year-on-year comparisons in this report analyse the period 1 January to 8 March 2026 and compare it with the same period in 2025, ensuring a like-for-like comparison of transaction volumes and pricing indicators.

Analysis Window1 Jan – 8 Mar 2026 vs 1 Jan – 8 Mar 2025
Data SourceLonRes, analysed by Foster Row Research
CoverageW2 (Bayswater) — Published March 2026
Market Snapshot

Bayswater Property Market Snapshot - Winter 2026

The Winter 2026 data for W2 presents a market of two distinct stories: a sales market navigating a period of volume adjustment while pricing holds broadly firm, and a lettings market recording a significant rise in transaction activity against a backdrop of stable per-square-foot rental values.

Sales Market
36
Sales completed
-40.0% year on year
£1,021/ft2
Median price per sq ft
-7.4% year on year
£927.5k
Median achieved price
3.37%
Median discount to asking
Lettings Market
145
Lets agreed
+57.6% year on year
£750pw
Median achieved rent
-6.0% year on year
£59/ft2
Median rent per sq ft
Flat year on year
78%
Let at or above asking
Location Context

About the Bayswater Property Market

Bayswater occupies a compelling position within prime central London, bordered to the south by Hyde Park and to the west by Notting Hill, two of the capital's most desirable addresses. The area is defined by its sweeping white stucco terraces, generous Victorian mansion blocks and a growing number of well-converted lateral apartments that attract buyers and tenants seeking space and period character at a price point that remains more accessible than the neighbouring W8 and W11 postcodes.

The ongoing Queensway regeneration programme is reshaping the area's commercial identity, with investment in the public realm, retail and leisure expected to enhance the streetscape materially over the coming years. Excellent central London connectivity via Bayswater, Queensway, Paddington and Lancaster Gate stations, combined with immediate access to Hyde Park and proximity to both Notting Hill and Marylebone, continues to make W2 a versatile choice for owner-occupiers, investors and the international rental market alike.

Sales Market Analysis

Bayswater Residential Sales - Winter 2026

The sales analysis draws on completed transaction records across W2 covering 1 January to 8 March 2026, compared against the identical period in 2025. All 36 Q1 2026 and 60 Q1 2025 records carry valid sale dates, achieved prices and price-per-square-foot data.

Data note: All 36 Winter 2026 and 60 Winter 2025 transactions carry valid sale dates and achieved prices. 36 of 36 Winter 2026 records include PPSF data; 59 of 60 Winter 2025 records include PPSF data. The Winter 2026 sample includes one significant outlier: a 9th-floor penthouse at 123 Bayswater Road (6,854 sq ft, £51.2m, £7,466/ft2). The median is used throughout and is not materially affected by this transaction, but it is noted for transparency. Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research.

Headline Results

Metric Winter 2025 Winter 2026 Change
Completed transactions603640.0% lower
Median achieved sale price£921,750£927,500+0.6%
Median price per sq ft£1,102/ft2£1,021/ft2-7.4%
Median property size894 sq ft991 sq ft+10.9%
Median discount to asking2.32%3.37%Widened modestly
Mean discount to asking3.42%4.75%Widened modestly
Sales at or above asking price22 of 60 (37%)10 of 36 (28%)-9pp
PPSF is the reliable like-for-like value indicator. The median price movement of +0.6% confirms underlying price stability despite the volume reduction.
Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research.
Sales Completions by Bedroom Configuration - Winter 2025 vs Winter 2026
One-bedroom completions fell from 18 to 10 and two-bedroom from 18 to 12. Three-bedroom also reduced from 16 to 7. The overall volume decline is spread across configurations rather than concentrated in any single tier.
Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research.

36 completed sales were recorded across W2 in Winter 2026, compared with 60 in the equivalent period a year earlier. The 40% reduction in transaction volume is notable and is consistent with broader prime central London trends of cautious buyer activity in the early weeks of 2026. Importantly, the median achieved sale price remained almost unchanged at £927,500 versus £921,750 in Winter 2025, a movement of just +0.6%, which confirms that the volume reduction reflects selectivity and extended decision timescales rather than any distressed or discounted selling.

The median price per square foot of £1,021/ft2 in Winter 2026, down from £1,102/ft2 in Winter 2025, requires careful interpretation. The shift reflects a change in the composition of stock completing in this window, notably fewer large-format three, four and five-bedroom houses and lateral conversions, which typically transact at higher per-foot values, and a proportionally larger share of one and two-bedroom apartments in the £500,000 to £1 million range. This compositional effect is the primary driver of the PPSF movement rather than a market-wide deterioration in values. The decline in median PPSF should therefore not be interpreted as a broad repricing of Bayswater property values, but rather as the result of differences in the mix of properties completing during the comparison windows.

"The 0.6% movement in median achieved price - from £921,750 to £927,500 - is the most reliable signal that Bayswater's underlying value base has held firm across the Winter 2026 period, even as transaction volumes have contracted significantly."

Median Price per sq ft by Bedroom Configuration - Winter 2025 vs Winter 2026
One-bedroom PPSF improved from £964 to £1,078/ft2 (+11.8%). Two-bedroom moderated from £995 to £910/ft2. Three-bedroom fell from £1,277 to £1,024/ft2, reflecting a shift toward smaller three-bedroom stock. Four-bedroom reduced from £2,514 to £1,119/ft2 on an identical sample of 3 transactions.
Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research. Note: y-axis does not begin at zero. Four-bedroom figures are based on n=3 in both periods and should be treated as indicative only.
Monthly Sales Completions - W2 Bayswater, January 2025 to March 2026
The W2 market showed steady activity through 2025, with a peak of 36 completions in July. The Winter 2026 opening months (Jan 19, Feb 16) run below the Winter 2025 pace (Jan 21, Feb 34), consistent with the broader volume softening observed across prime central London in early 2026.
Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research.

The slower Winter 2026 transaction pace should also be interpreted within the broader context of reduced prime central London sales activity during this period, rather than as a location-specific decline in Bayswater.

Configuration Breakdown

Configuration W25 Median W26 Median W25 PPSF W26 PPSF n 25 n 26
Studion/a£560,000n/a£1,116/ft201
1 Bedroom£440,000£607,500£964/ft2£1,078/ft21810
2 Bedroom£889,250£990,000£995/ft2£910/ft21812
3 Bedroom£1,716,500£1,100,000£1,277/ft2£1,024/ft2167
4 Bedroom£6,500,000£2,000,000£2,514/ft2£1,119/ft233
5+ Bedroom£5,600,000£26,787,500£1,760/ft2£4,227/ft252
5+ bedroom Winter 2026 sample includes 123 Bayswater Road penthouse (£51.2m, £7,466/ft2). Treat this tier as indicative only. 4-bedroom samples are identical at n=3 in both periods; the median movement reflects different specific properties completing.
Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research.

The one-bedroom tier provides the clearest positive signal in the sales data: 10 completions at a median of £607,500 and £1,078/ft2 represent an 11.8% improvement in per-foot pricing on a year earlier, and a 38% increase in median achieved price. This reflects the ongoing demand from owner-occupiers and investors for well-located one-bedroom stock in W2, where the value proposition against equivalent property in W1 or SW1 remains compelling.

Two-bedroom completions were the largest single cohort in Winter 2026 at 12 transactions (33% of all sales). The median price of £990,000 is a meaningful increase on the £889,250 recorded in Winter 2025, while the PPSF of £910/ft2 is modestly lower, reflecting a shift toward larger two-bedroom apartments in the 1,000 to 1,200 sq ft range completing this period rather than any softening in values for well-positioned stock.

Negotiation Context

A median discount of 3.37% and mean of 4.75% in Winter 2026 represent a modest widening on the 2.32% and 3.42% recorded in the equivalent 2025 period. This widening is consistent with buyers exercising greater negotiating leverage in a lower-volume environment, and with vendors adjusting expectations to reflect a market where transaction pace has slowed. It is not indicative of distress. The at-or-above-asking proportion of 28% confirms that correctly priced instructions are still attracting competition.

Lettings Market Analysis

Bayswater Lettings - Volume Surge as Supply Returns

The W2 lettings analysis covers 145 let agreements in Winter 2026 and 92 in the equivalent 2025 period, representing a 57.6% increase in transaction volume. Rental values, measured on a per-square-foot basis, held unchanged at £59/ft2 across both periods.

Data note: PPSF figures are based on 131 of 145 Winter 2026 transactions and 88 of 92 Winter 2025 transactions where floor area was recorded. The median weekly rent movement (-6.0%) reflects a compositional shift toward smaller stock and lower price-point lets within the enlarged Winter 2026 sample rather than a uniform reduction in rental values. Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research.

Headline Results

Metric Winter 2025 Winter 2026 Change
Lets agreed92145+57.6%
Median achieved rent£798 pw£750 pw-6.0%
Median rent per sq ft (annualised)£59/ft2£59/ft2Flat
Median discount to asking0.00%0.00%Unchanged
Mean discount to asking0.44%0.89%Widened slightly
Lets at exactly asking rent63 of 92 (68%)101 of 145 (70%)+2pp
Lets at or above asking rent73 of 92 (79%)113 of 145 (78%)-1pp
Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research.
Lets Agreed by Bedroom Configuration - Winter 2025 vs Winter 2026
One-bedroom lets increased from 31 to 53 and two-bedroom from 35 to 49, together accounting for the majority of the volume increase. Three-bedroom lets also grew from 20 to 22. The enlarged sample is distributed broadly across all configurations.
Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research.

145 lets were agreed across W2 between 1 January and 8 March 2026, compared with 92 in the equivalent period of 2025. This represents a 57.6% increase and is the single most significant finding in the Winter 2026 dataset. This volume increase is substantial and indicates a meaningful return of rental stock to the W2 market following a period of constrained supply. One-bedroom and two-bedroom lets drove the bulk of the increase, rising from 31 to 53 and 35 to 49 respectively.

"The 57.6% increase in W2 letting volume in Winter 2026 is the standout figure in the Bayswater dataset. At the same time, rent per square foot held at £59/ft2 - confirming that the supply increase has not materially weakened the per-unit rental value of stock coming to market."

Median Achieved Weekly Rent by Bedroom Configuration - Winter 2025 vs Winter 2026
One-bedroom median rent fell from £634 to £595 pw (-6.1%) on a larger sample. Two-bedroom moderated from £850 to £807 pw (-5.1%). Three-bedroom increased from £1,246 to £1,431 pw (+14.8%) on a slightly larger cohort.
Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research. Note: y-axis does not begin at zero. Four-bedroom figures are based on n=2 (Winter 2025) and n=9 (Winter 2026) and should be treated as indicative only.
Median Rent per sq ft (Annualised) by Configuration - Winter 2025 vs Winter 2026
Size-normalised rental values show a consistent picture: per-square-foot rents have held broadly flat across all major configurations. Studio PPSF moved from £85 to £65/ft2 on a small sample (n=3 to n=12). The combined market PPSF of £59/ft2 is unchanged year on year.
Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research. Note: y-axis does not begin at zero. PPSF values across all configurations range £56–85/ft2; the truncated axis is used for readability. Studio figures are based on n=3 (Winter 2025) and should be treated as indicative only.
Monthly Lets Agreed - W2 Bayswater, January 2025 to March 2026
Letting activity followed a pronounced seasonal pattern in 2025, peaking at 172 transactions in September. The Winter 2026 pace (Jan 72, Feb 68) is substantially higher than the equivalent Winter 2025 months (Jan 50, Feb 36), confirming that the volume increase is a genuine market-level shift rather than a seasonal effect.
Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research.

Configuration Breakdown

Configuration W25 Median pw W26 Median pw Change n 25 n 26 Share 2026
Studio£345£444+28.7%3128%
1 Bedroom£634£595-6.1%315337%
2 Bedroom£850£807-5.1%354934%
3 Bedroom£1,246£1,431+14.8%202215%
4 Bedroom£2,638£1,684-36.2%296%
Studio Winter 2025 sample (n=3) is too small to draw reliable conclusions. Four-bedroom Winter 2025 sample (n=2) is similarly limited. Three-bedroom growth from n=20 to n=22 is statistically more reliable.
Source: LonRes market data analysed by Foster Row Research.

One-bedroom and two-bedroom lets together account for 70% of all Winter 2026 W2 transactions. The moderate headline rent decline in these tiers (-6.1% and -5.1% respectively) should be read alongside the stable PPSF figures of £62/ft2 and £56/ft2: the lower median weekly rents partly reflect a greater proportion of smaller units within each category coming to market, rather than a uniform softening in achieved rents for comparable stock.

Three-bedroom lets are the standout performer at the configuration level, with median achieved rent rising from £1,246 to £1,431 per week on 22 transactions, a 14.8% increase on a solid and comparable sample. This reflects continued strong demand from families and professional households for larger Bayswater accommodation. The volume increase across the lettings market is likely supported in part by W2's established international tenant base, though nationality-level data is not available from this source to confirm this directly.

A Consistently Full-Price Lettings Market

The median discount to asking rent was 0.00% in both Winter 2025 and Winter 2026, meaning the midpoint transaction in each period completed at exactly the asking rent. 101 of the 145 Winter 2026 lets (70%) agreed at precisely the asking price, and a further 12 completed above. In total, 113 of 145 transactions (78%) were agreed at or above asking price, fractionally below the 79% recorded in Winter 2025. The marginal movement in the mean discount, from 0.44% to 0.89%, reflects a small number of cases where incentives were agreed rather than any systemic pricing concession. The overall picture is one of a lettings market that has absorbed a substantial increase in supply without any meaningful weakening in the at-asking completion rate.

Market Commentary

Bayswater: Supply Returning, Values Holding

The Winter 2026 data for W2 presents a property market in transition rather than decline. Sales volumes have contracted sharply against a high comparable period, while the lettings market has simultaneously experienced its most active Winter in the dataset. Reading both signals together, one plausible interpretation is that some owners may be electing to let rather than sell in the current environment, contributing to increased rental supply and the headline rent moderation. This cannot be confirmed directly from transaction data. What the data does confirm is that those who do sell are achieving prices close to the prior year level.

The per-square-foot metrics tell a more stable story than the headline figures suggest. The median sales PPSF of £1,021/ft2, while below the £1,102/ft2 recorded in Winter 2025, reflects a compositional change in which properties completed rather than a broad deterioration in values. In the one-bedroom tier, where the sample is largest and most reliable, PPSF actually improved by 11.8%. And in the lettings market, the flat PPSF figure of £59/ft2 across both years is the most important single data point: the Bayswater rental market has absorbed a 57.6% increase in supply without any measurable per-unit value erosion.

The structural backdrop for Bayswater remains positive. The Queensway regeneration continues to progress, Hyde Park access is among the most direct of any prime central London postcode, and the area's relative value against Notting Hill, Kensington and Marylebone continues to attract both domestic and international buyers and tenants who want prime central London quality without paying peak W11 or W8 pricing. The Winter 2026 data represents a period of market adjustment, not a loss of fundamental appeal.

Key Market Takeaways

What the Winter 2026 Data Tells Us

The W2 Winter 2026 data contains a number of distinct and important signals that require careful separation. The headline figures in both markets are influenced by compositional and supply-side effects that the per-unit metrics help to clarify.

Price per sq ft is the right sales measure Median sales PPSF moved from £1,102 to £1,021/ft2 (-7.4%). The near-flat median price (+0.6%) confirms this is compositional, not a market-wide value decline.
Lettings volume surge is the headline finding A 57.6% increase in W2 letting activity, from 92 to 145 transactions, is the most significant directional signal in the Winter 2026 dataset.
Rent per sq ft held at £59/ft2 The flat PPSF figure across both years confirms that rental values on a per-unit basis have not been eroded by the supply increase. This is the most important lettings metric.
Sales volume contraction is broad-based The 40% volume reduction in sales is spread across all bedroom configurations, consistent with wider prime London buyer caution rather than any W2-specific pressure.
One-bedroom sales PPSF strengthened The one-bedroom tier, the largest configuration cohort in both periods, produced an 11.8% improvement in PPSF (£964 to £1,078/ft2), the clearest positive sales signal.
Three-bedroom letting rents grew 14.8% Median three-bedroom rent rose from £1,246 to £1,431 pw on 22 transactions, confirming continued strong demand from professional and family tenants at this size tier.
78% of lettings at or above asking The at-or-above-asking completion rate of 78% is marginally below Winter 2025's 79% and confirms that the supply increase has been absorbed without meaningful concessions.
Queensway regeneration as a medium-term catalyst Continued public realm investment along Queensway is expected to enhance W2's commercial character and further close the amenity gap with W11 and W8 over the coming years.
Frequently Asked Questions

Bayswater Property Market - Frequently Asked Questions

Is Bayswater a good place to buy property in London?

Bayswater offers a compelling combination of central London location, period property stock and relative value that continues to attract both owner-occupiers and investors. The Winter 2026 data confirms that underlying pricing has held firm. The median achieved sale price of £927,500 is almost identical to the £921,750 recorded in the equivalent period of 2025, even as transaction volumes have reduced.

The area's structural advantages are significant: immediate access to Hyde Park, proximity to Notting Hill and Marylebone, excellent transport connectivity, and a built environment dominated by stucco terraces, Victorian mansion blocks and lateral conversions that are in limited supply and not being replicated. For buyers who want the quality and positioning of a prime west London address without paying peak Notting Hill or Kensington prices, Bayswater continues to represent one of the most coherent value propositions in the central London market.

The Queensway regeneration adds a medium-term dimension to the investment case. Public realm improvements and new retail and leisure operators are progressively enhancing the area's street-level identity, and the commercial upgrade is expected to support further narrowing of the value gap with neighbouring postcodes.

How much is property worth per square foot in Bayswater?

In Winter 2026, the median achieved price per square foot across W2 was £1,021/ft2, based on all 36 completed sales in the period. This compares with £1,102/ft2 in the equivalent period of Winter 2025. As noted in the report, the movement reflects a shift in the composition of stock completing in this window rather than a uniform reduction in values across the market.

There is meaningful variation by configuration. One-bedroom apartments produced a median PPSF of £1,078/ft2 in Winter 2026, an improvement on the prior year. Two-bedroom apartments achieved £910/ft2 on 12 transactions. Three-bedroom properties, where the sample is smaller, recorded £1,024/ft2. At the top of the market, the penthouse at 123 Bayswater Road completed at £7,466/ft2 on a 6,854 sq ft floor plate at £51.2 million, a transaction in a separate price category that reflects the premium achievable for truly exceptional Hyde Park-facing stock.

What is driving demand in the Bayswater property market?

Demand in the Bayswater property market is driven by several overlapping factors that apply across both the sales and lettings markets.

Hyde Park access is the single most consistent demand driver cited by both buyers and tenants. The park border runs along the southern edge of W2, and properties with park views or within easy walking distance command a meaningful premium. This is most evident in the lettings market, where three-bedroom rents rose 14.8% year on year despite a broader rental moderation, driven partly by family tenants specifically seeking park proximity.

Relative value compared with W8, W11 and W1H is a second significant driver. Buyers and tenants who have been priced out of Notting Hill or Kensington, or who are making a conscious decision to prioritise space over postcode, frequently identify Bayswater as the natural next step. The Winter 2026 one-bedroom PPSF of £1,078/ft2 compares favourably with equivalent stock in W8 or W11, making the value case clear.

W2's established international tenant base is a third consistent factor. Bayswater's reputation as an accessible, centrally located area with a diverse residential community has long made it popular with tenants from Europe, the Middle East and Asia. The 57.6% increase in Winter 2026 letting volume is likely supported in part by this established base, though nationality-level data is not available from this source to confirm this directly.